Customer Reviews:
 Don't let Taleb's annoying asides stop you from reading The Black Swan June 16, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Taleb could use a good editor, no doubt about it. Taleb's writing can be very entertaining and informative when he does not distract and annoy the reader with childish throwaway asides. On the other hand, these asides act as road-signs: When you find one aside too many, just skip the rest of the chapter because it is of no major consequence. When Taleb takes to his subject, he writes like an adult. :)
The subject matter, which could have been covered in fewer pages, is about the fact that the normal or bell curve does not represent reality in many cases and in these instances predictions based on a normal distribution will be wildly wrong. I found particularly helpful some pointers about our understanding of issues like "evidence" which may or may not prove your assumptions and "randomness" (not what you learn in a casino) which may be Gaussian or not.
The rest of the book is dedicated to various subjects such as the history of the Levant, not to be confused with the Middle East; a diatribe against the Nobel prize for economics; the academic pecking order; Taleb's travelogue including Rome, Paris, Sidney, Boston; and praises for philosophers and mathematicians Taleb happens to like including Mandelbrot and Poincare.
The reason for reading this book, if you are an investor, is to make sure you adapt your portfolio to the reality of Black Swans and avoid wrong assumptions and bad theories such as MPT, Black-Scholes, and Efficient Markets. If you are not highly leveraged then Black Swans will be less traumatic for your portfolio. Maybe Taleb should have railed against excessive leverage.
While Taleb does mention his dumbbell style of investing, don't expect to find an investing tutorial. He provides some clues but you will have to create your own unique style of harnessing good Black Swans and avoiding the bad ones.
Good read June 13, 2008
1 out of 4 found this review helpful
Nutshell review - Although written in a slightly arrogant style the concepts, insights, and ideas expressed clearly show a highly intelligent and very well read author. Thoroughly interesting, thought provoking and well written book. Very worth reading.
 The Paper It's Printed On June 7, 2008
1 out of 10 found this review helpful
Actually I love this book and can't get enough Taleb, mostly additionally, in the form of podcasts. I just couldn't help but posting a comment on the quality of the paper and the binding. Especially a book like this which is full of fascinating facts and figures you're going to want to put your finger on later, you might be inclined to highlight, right? The ink bleeds right through the paper to the other side. How frustrating. I buy hardbacks knowing that the paperback paper is too thin to highlight. Is this how it's going to be now? There are other indications of cost cutting. The binding ripping after one reading. Inside cover full of bubbles where the glue didn't quite catch. Especially with a Black Swan of a blockbuster hit, couldn't you spend the extra couple of cents to make a quality product?
 We have to remember, it is a model about the world, not a world about the model June 5, 2008
1 out of 3 found this review helpful
If you ever questioned what your history teacher told you, you will find this book very interesting. If you ever hated grading on the curve, you will find out your were not alone. If you ever built a portfolio and it was perfect, and later you had asked yourself what in the world were you doing, you will find an answer in this book.
If you ever had to decompose a forecast at your work to get some alpha, beta, gamma, delta, or whatever Greek letter you like, you will find this book entertaining.
And if you did not do any of the above, just enjoy a good language.
P.S. I gave this book as a Christmas present to someone.
Very disappointing : empty and longish June 4, 2008
3 out of 6 found this review helpful
I read several chapters and had to stop because I felt I was losing my time in hopes that something interesting would pop up in the next paragraph. But it didn't.
There is nothing really original about the "black swan" idea. Not all events fit a bell curve, ok. Taleb claims that there are more black swan events than we think, that they shape the world, but we underestimate their impact etc. All of these are petitions of the principle. There seems to be no sound reasoning in the book.
Taleb is rightly critical of people who make induction from a few examples. But he makes inductions from a single instance, instead. In the discussion on "scalable" vs "non-scalable" work, he proves to have limited knowledge in economics. Maybe this is too severe : Keynes and Knight are briefly cited, and Hayek is discussed. Well, I will stop here.
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